EIA Forecasts $3.90 Gasoline in 2026 After Hormuz Disruptions

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s June outlook forecasts an average U.S. retail gasoline price of $3.90 per gallon in 2026. The forecast is above EIA’s reported $3.10 average for 2025 and its $3.64 forecast for 2027. These figures are annual estimates, not guaranteed pump prices or calculations of what any household will lose.

In that June 9 outlook, EIA said the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed in the near term. The agency said Middle Eastern oil producers had cut output by more than 11 million barrels per day. It projected global inventory draws averaging 6.3 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 7.6 million barrels per day in the third quarter. EIA also said OECD oil inventories were at their lowest level since 2003.

EIA’s chokepoints analysis records average Strait of Hormuz flows of 20.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025. The agency equated that volume with about 20% of global petroleum-liquids consumption and one-quarter of global maritime traded oil. EIA said pipelines and other alternatives could move only a portion of the oil volumes out of the strait. It also said rerouting can add significantly to transit time and shipping costs.

EIA’s July 15 review describes second-quarter effects. Brent crude reached a second-quarter high of $118 per barrel and a low of $72. Its average daily price swing in April and May was $4 per barrel, compared with $1 in the same months of 2025. EIA estimated that global crude inventories declined by 5.1 million barrels per day in the quarter, while U.S. commercial stocks ended at their lowest seasonal level since 2014. The review does not establish conditions on August 10.

The trade data show a shift in supply sources. EIA reported that U.S. crude oil and petroleum-product net exports reached a record 5.8 million barrels per day in April, with May exports remaining close to that level. The agency expects 2026 net exports to average 4.2 million barrels per day, or 1.4 million barrels per day above 2025. EIA said international buyers seeking alternative petroleum supplies drove up U.S. refinery margins.

The margin indicators were strongest for transportation fuels. EIA said the quarterly gasoline crack spread rose 60% from a year earlier, while distillate and jet-fuel crack spreads more than doubled their year-ago levels. A crack spread measures the difference between a refined product’s price and the Dated Brent price, and EIA uses it as an indicator of refinery margins. EIA estimated second-quarter distillate exports at 1.56 million barrels per day, 30% above the five-year average, and jet-fuel exports at 356,000 barrels per day, more than twice that average.

The International Energy Agency separately reported that physical crude prices briefly rose to just under $150 per barrel after the war began on February 28, while gasoline and diesel remained about 30% above pre-war levels after crude prices eased. The IEA said household exposure differed by country because domestic fuel-market structures and government intervention affected how international prices reached pumps. Taken together, these records support an inference that the conflict’s initial public economic effects appeared through market indicators before any separately quantified congressional invoice. They do not establish an exact household loss, individual refinery profits, or the conflict’s precise share of every price increase.