Trump’s Oil Blockade Escalates Conflict as Cuban Military-Run Economy Stagnates
The U.S. is cranking up its economic pressure on Cuba with a new de facto oil blockade. This 'Maximum Pressure' 2.0 strategy aims to dismantle the current government, but there's a catch: the policy basically accepts civilian suffering as a prerequisite for change. At the heart of the debate is GAESA, the opaque military conglomerate that runs the island's most profitable sectors. While U.S. officials say the squeeze is necessary to defund the military, the Cuban government’s own red tape continues to choke internal recovery. Now, ordinary Cubans find themselves stuck between a blockade from the North and mismanagement at home.
New U.S. oil blockades are taking aim at Cuba's energy grid to force regime change. It’s a high-stakes gamble that targets the military’s hold on the economy, but it’s the civilians who are bearing the brunt of the blackouts and food shortages.
Trump’s latest executive order isn't just another trade tweak; it’s a direct hit on Cuba's power grid. By going after the tankers and insurance companies moving crude from Venezuela and Russia, Washington is trying to flip the switch on the island’s energy. It’s a strategy pulled straight from the 1960 'Mallory Memo' playbook—the idea that you can deny a country money and supplies to spark desperation. And while that memo is decades old, its logic still drives policy today. Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-FL) basically admitted as much when she called the choice between helping people and forcing 'regime change' a 'brutal dilemmaLoaded Language.'
What often gets lost in the noise is the role of GAESA. This isn't just some company; it’s a massive military-run holding firm that controls anywhere from 40% to 60% of the Cuban economy. We're talking hotels, foreign exchange, and retail—the works. State Department officials argue that you can't touch the Cuban economy without lining GAESA’s pockets, which they claim fuels the security state instead of the people. But GAESA’s books are a total black box. That lack of transparency makes it easy for both sides to spin the numbers for their own propaganda, leaving the truth somewhere in the middle.
“That is precisely the brutal dilemma we face as exiles: to alleviate short-term suffering or to free Cuba forever.”
The money trail goes back to 1960, when the Castro government seized $1.9 billion in U.S. assets—about $19 billion in today’s money—without paying a dime. The blockade isn’t just about ideology; it's a legal lever to get Havana to pay up on those claims. But the Cuban government is also playing a game, using the blockade to dodge blame for its own disasters. Look at the 2021 'Tarea Ordenamiento' reform. It sent inflation through the roof, and when you combine that with the state’s refusal to let small businesses import goods without a middleman, the economy just chokes.
The human cost isn't a side effect anymore—it’s the metric. When the oil stops flowing, the lights go out. Hospitals lose power, and the average family watches their food rot because the fridge won't run. The big question is whether this misery will lead to the 'overthrow' D.C. wants or just keep fueling the exodus. More than 400,000 Cubans have already fled to the U.S. border in just the last two years. That's a lot of people who'd rather leave than wait to see if the State Department's gamble pays off.
As Washington doubles down on isolation, Havana is looking for new friends. Russia and China are already moving in, signaling that they’re happy to step into the vacuum the U.S. is creating. It doesn’t exactly look like a win for democracy. For the people on the ground, the reality is pretty grim: their own military leaders won't loosen their economic grip, and the U.S. won't let the fuel reach the docks. They're stuck in the middle, and the screws are only getting tighter.
Summary
The U.S. is cranking up its economic pressure on Cuba with a new de facto oil blockade. This 'Maximum Pressure' 2.0 strategy aims to dismantle the current government, but there's a catch: the policy basically accepts civilian suffering as a prerequisite for change. At the heart of the debate is GAESA, the opaque military conglomerate that runs the island's most profitable sectors. While U.S. officials say the squeeze is necessary to defund the military, the Cuban government’s own red tape continues to choke internal recovery. Now, ordinary Cubans find themselves stuck between a blockade from the North and mismanagement at home.
⚡ Key Facts
- In 1960, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Lester Mallory wrote a memo advocating for denying supplies to Cuba to bring about hunger and the overthrow of the government.
- Donald Trump recently announced a de facto oil blockade on Cuba via executive order.
- Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-FL) described the choice between alleviating suffering and freeing Cuba as a 'brutal dilemma'.
- Representatives Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, and Chuy García have publicly condemned the new measures as 'collective punishment' or 'cruelty'.
Trump’s Oil Blockade Escalates Conflict as Cuban Military-Run Economy Stagnates
Network of Influence
- The Cuban government (by shifting all blame for economic hardship onto external actors)
- Advocacy groups seeking the normalization of US-Cuba relations
- Political factions within the U.S. that oppose interventionist foreign policy
- The internal economic policies of the Cuban government that restrict private enterprise and internal trade.
- The history of political repression and human rights abuses by the Cuban state against dissidents.
- The original legal justification for the embargo involving the uncompensated seizure of U.S. assets.
- The influence of the Cuban military (GAESA) over the island's most profitable economic sectors.
The article frames U.S. sanctions as an intentional, illegal, and inhumane act of 'collective punishment' against innocent civilians, while positioning the Cuban government as a passive victim of external aggression.